| Approaches |
Group scenario-contingent assessment |
Decision analysis |
Survey; polling |
Event tracking |
Stakeholder analysis |
Relative ranking |
Statistical methods: survival
modelling, Bayesian regression |
| Type |
judgmental |
judgmental |
judgmental |
non-judgmental |
both |
both |
non-judgmental |
| Probability |
subjective |
subjective |
subjective |
frequentist |
frequentist |
frequentist |
frequentist, subjective |
| Aggregation |
behavioral |
individual, difficult to aggregate |
mathematical |
mathematical |
N/A |
mathematical |
mathematical |
| Simple? |
yes, just update the spreadsheet |
no, need knowledge of decision analysis |
no, interpretive element, timeliness
of responses |
yes, once system is set up |
no, need to set it up |
yes, use a scoring system |
no, modeling required |
| Systematic? |
yes, regular conference calls |
no, if decision tree structure changes |
no, unless deadlines can be enforced |
yes, if some is assigned to track
events |
no, harder to track unless generalisable |
yes, possible |
no, interpretive work involved |
| Defensible? |
yes, group accountability |
yes, causal inference |
yes, if sufficient response rate |
yes, objective data |
no, still an uncertain element |
no, unless predictive validity established |
yes |
| Acceptable? |
yes, from in-house experts, easy
to use, but need conditional probabilities |
yes |
yes |
yes, but link to forecast not yet
established |
yes |
yes |
yes |